Fundamental Desk
Cross-sectional commodity positioning
Where the 9 commodities stand relative to each other on the two fundamentals with the strongest published evidence: futures carry (term structure — backwardation vs contango) and CFTC COT positioning (commercial hedgers, 3-year z-score). Updated daily. Sorted by carry (most backwardated first).
| Commodity | Carry | COT z (3yr) | Signal | Inventory vs 5-yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platinum | +1.18% | -0.52 | bullish | — |
| Silver | +0.65% | -0.36 | bearish | — |
| WTI Crude Oil | +0.53% | -0.74 | bearish | -15.6% |
| Copper | +0.08% | 1.09 | bearish | — |
| Gold | +0.04% | 0.13 | bullish | — |
| Palladium | -0.04% | -1.78 | extreme short | — |
| Hard Red Winter Wheat | -1.37% | -1.54 | extreme short | — |
| Natural Gas | -1.97% | 1.22 | neutral | +6% |
| Corn | -2.13% | -0.7 | bearish | — |
Carry = (front − next)/next futures price; positive = backwardation (tight supply, historically bullish per the Theory of Storage). COT z standardizes commercial-hedger net positioning against its 3-year history.
Research data, not trade signals.This is a cross-sectional view of fundamental positioning, published for transparency and research. The carry component is newly tracked and not yet backtested on RetailVest's engine; nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. See our methodology and the evidence behind these factors in strategy research.