Module 24
Corporate bonds: IG vs HY
A corporate bond is a company's IOU: it pays you a fixed coupon on schedule and your principal back at maturity. The rating agencies split the universe in two. Investment Grade (IG) — BBB− and above — are the borrowers deemed solidly likely to pay. High Yield (HY)— BB+ and below, the market's “junk” — are everyone else. That one dividing line drives who owns the bonds, how they trade and, as we'll see, what kind of risk you're actually holding. Everything else in credit — loans, CDS, CLOs — builds on this base case.
Pricing works the same way as any bond: discount the cashflows. But instead of discounting at Treasury rates alone, the market discounts at Treasuries plus a credit spread — the extra yield that prices the chance of default, the chance of a downgrade, and the cost of getting out of an illiquid position. The cleanest measure is the Z-spread: one constant spread added to the whole Treasury curve that reprices the bond to its market quote (Module 4 walks through the mechanics). One refinement matters a lot in HY: most high-yield bonds are callable, and the OAS(option-adjusted spread) is the Z-spread after stripping out the value of that embedded call — the spread you're truly paid for credit.
A useful mental model for where spreads come from:
spread ≈ default probability × (1 − recovery) + risk/liquidity premia
In practice IG trades around 50–150bp over Treasuries, HY around 250–500bp and up, and once the market seriously doubts repayment the bond goes distressed— quoted in points of price rather than spread, because recovery is what's being traded.
What moves the P&L differs sharply across the divide:
- Rates (DV01) — for an IG bond the spread is a small slice of the yield, so Treasury moves dominate the price.
- Spreads (CS01) — the P&L per basis point of spread move; the dominant risk in HY, where spread is most of the yield.
- Default (JTD) — jump-to-default: your loss if the issuer defaults tomorrow. For senior unsecured bonds the classic recovery mark is ~40%, so JTD is roughly 60% of your position.
- Downgrade risk — a BBB− issuer cut to BB+ becomes a “fallen angel,” and IG-only mandates are forced to sell into the downgrade — a price hit before any default.
- Callability — HY issuers refinance when their bonds rally, so prices are capped near the call price: negative convexity.
The takeaway: an IG bond is mostly a rates instrument with a spread kicker; an HY bond is mostly a credit instrument with a rates kicker. As you move down the ratings, CS01 and JTD carry the risk. Build a spread from its parts below and watch the mix flip.
🎛 Spread decomposer
Total spread
140 bp
what the bond pays over Treasuries
Expected loss
90 bp
PD × (1 − recovery)
Premium
50 bp
risk aversion + illiquidity
Investment Grade territory
Spreads under ~150bp are what solid BBB− and better issuers pay — default risk is a small part of the yield.
Risk mix
rates-dominated (DV01)
Illustrative: credit share = spread ÷ (spread + an assumed 400bp of risk-free yield). Real books measure this with DV01 and CS01, but the direction is the same — the wider the spread, the more the bond behaves like credit.
The expected-loss spread is the part of the spread that just covers average defaults — default probability times loss given default. The premium is everything on top: compensation for bearing risk, downgrade cliffs and illiquidity. Real spreads bundle all of it into one number. Educational tool — not investment advice.
How the decomposition is computed
The widget builds a spread bottom-up. The expected-loss piece is what the spread must cover just to break even on average defaults:
expected-loss spread (bp) = PD × (1 − recovery) × 10,000 total spread (bp) = expected-loss spread + risk/liquidity premium
Worked example: a HY issuer with a 4% annual default probability and 40% recovery loses you 4% × 60% = 2.4% a year on average — 240bp of pure expected loss. Add a 100bp premium for bearing that risk and the illiquidity, and you get a 340bp spread — squarely in HY territory. An IG name at 0.2% PD produces just 12bp of expected loss; nearly all of its ~100bp spread is premium, which is why IG spreads say more about risk appetite than about default math.
Things to try
- • Set PD 0.25%, recovery 40%, premium 80bp — a typical single-A profile. Note how little of the spread is actual default risk.
- • Raise PD to 5% and watch the banner cross into High Yield, then Distressed — and the risk-mix bar flip from DV01 to CS01/JTD.
- • Hold PD fixed and drag recovery from 60% down to 20% — same default odds, very different spread. Recovery matters as much as default.
- • Zero out the premium — the spread that remains is the actuarially “fair” one. Real markets never trade there for long.